Market Update for the Week of July 16, 2018

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE

First American, a provider of services for real estate transactions, said their latest Real Estate Sentiment Index found nearly 87% of first-time buyers were 26-35 years old–aka millennials!

Their chief economist also said, “This month’s increase by nearly 4,000 residential construction jobs…sends a positive message,…as it indicates further increases in housing starts are likely and more housing supply may be on the way.”

Freddie Mac‘s chief economist noted, “A record number of people quit their job last month, most likely for…higher wages and better benefits. This positive trend, along with these lower mortgage rates, should increasingly give…homebuyers the financial wherewithal to resume their home search.”

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

Describe your ideal prospects, then target your marketing to them. When you know who you’re looking for, it’s way easier to find them–and speak to their needs.

Review of Last Week

BRING ON THOSE Q2 EARNINGS!… Stocks rallied for another week, driven by investor optimism about Q2 corporate earnings. The S&P 500 hit its highest level since February, the Dow zoomed back over 25,000 and the Nasdaq reached a new record.

Q1 saw S&P 500 earnings almost 25% above last year. Wall Street expects another quarter of double-digit earnings growth, thanks to tax cuts and a healthy economy with surprisingly strong job growth, averaging 215,000 new jobs a month during the first half.

July’s preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index dipped to 97.1, but that’s still pretty high. The index average since inception is 85.4–87.6 in non-recessionary years, 69.3 in recessions. CPI inflation rose a mild 0.1% in June.

The week ended with the Dow UP 2.3%, to 25019; the S&P 500 UP 1.5%, to 2801; and the Nasdaq UP 1.8%, to 7826.

Bond prices hung in there by and large, despite soaring stocks. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down just .08, to $101.98. In Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked up slightly. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?

Fannie Mae reports 40% of all home owners are Baby Boomers born from 1946 to 1964, inhabiting 32 million homes. People born earlier own another 14 million homes, with the combined total worth an estimated $13.5 trillion.

This Week’s Forecast

HOMEBUILDING MIXED, RETAIL AND MANUFACTURING GROW… Analysts expect June Housing Starts to be off a little, but Building Permits should edge up. Retail Sales are forecast on the increase, along with the Philadelphia Fed Index of manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Jul 16 – Jul 20

Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
M
Jul 16
08:30 Retail Sales Jun 0.5% 0.8% HIGH
M
Jul 16
08:30 NY Empire Manufacturing Index Jul 21.0 25.0 Moderate
M
Jul 16
10:00 Business Inventories May 0.4% 0.3% Moderate
Tu
Jul 17
09:15 Industrial Production Jun 0.5% -0.1% Moderate
Tu
Jul 17
09:15 Capacity Utilization Jun 78.3% 77.9% Moderate
W
Jul 18
08:30 Housing Starts Jun 1.318M 1.350M Moderate
W
Jul 18
08:30 Building Permits Jun 1.330M 1.301M Moderate
W
Jul 18
10:30 Crude Inventories 07/14 NA -12.6M Moderate
W
Jul 18
14:00 Fed Beige Book Jun NA NA Moderate
Th
Jul 19
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 07/14 220K 214K Moderate
Th
Jul 19
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 07/07 NA 1.739M Moderate
Th
Jul 19
08:30 Philadelphia Fed Index Jul 22.0 19.9 HIGH
Th
Jul 19
10:00 Leading Economic Index (LEI) Jun 0.4% 0.2% Moderate

Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months…Wall Street still says we’ll have no Fed rate hike in August, a small one in September, then none in November. Note: In the lower chart, a 2% probability of change is a 98% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.75%-2.00%

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Aug   1 1.75%-2.00%
Sep 26 2.00%-2.25%
Nov   8 2.00%-2.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Aug   1            2%
Sep 26          87%
Nov   8          19%

Statistics source: www.markettrends.com

Material in this article from: Inside Lending Market Snapshot

This is an advertisement for Jim Passi. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Citywide Home Loans and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Citywide Home Loans. Citywide CO NMLS #67180. Regulated by the Division of Real Estate.

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Jim Passi
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1300 East Woodfield Road, Suite 302
Schaumburg, IL 60173
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As a first time home

As a first time home owner to be, especially at a young age, it can be a daunting task finding the help to make your dream come true. I can honestly say there was nothing intimidating about the whole process with Jim guiding me and my wife along the way. Anytime a friend or even stranger brings up looking into new real estate I unhesitatingly recommend Jim Passi and hand them his card. Thanks, Jim.

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