INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
First American, a provider of services for real estate transactions, said their latest Real Estate Sentiment Index found nearly 87% of first-time buyers were 26-35 years old–aka millennials!
Their chief economist also said, “This month’s increase by nearly 4,000 residential construction jobs…sends a positive message,…as it indicates further increases in housing starts are likely and more housing supply may be on the way.”
Freddie Mac‘s chief economist noted, “A record number of people quit their job last month, most likely for…higher wages and better benefits. This positive trend, along with these lower mortgage rates, should increasingly give…homebuyers the financial wherewithal to resume their home search.”
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
Describe your ideal prospects, then target your marketing to them. When you know who you’re looking for, it’s way easier to find them–and speak to their needs.
Review of Last Week
BRING ON THOSE Q2 EARNINGS!… Stocks rallied for another week, driven by investor optimism about Q2 corporate earnings. The S&P 500 hit its highest level since February, the Dow zoomed back over 25,000 and the Nasdaq reached a new record.
Q1 saw S&P 500 earnings almost 25% above last year. Wall Street expects another quarter of double-digit earnings growth, thanks to tax cuts and a healthy economy with surprisingly strong job growth, averaging 215,000 new jobs a month during the first half.
July’s preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index dipped to 97.1, but that’s still pretty high. The index average since inception is 85.4–87.6 in non-recessionary years, 69.3 in recessions. CPI inflation rose a mild 0.1% in June.
The week ended with the Dow UP 2.3%, to 25019; the S&P 500 UP 1.5%, to 2801; and the Nasdaq UP 1.8%, to 7826.
Bond prices hung in there by and large, despite soaring stocks. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down just .08, to $101.98. In Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked up slightly. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.
DID YOU KNOW?
Fannie Mae reports 40% of all home owners are Baby Boomers born from 1946 to 1964, inhabiting 32 million homes. People born earlier own another 14 million homes, with the combined total worth an estimated $13.5 trillion.
This Week’s Forecast
HOMEBUILDING MIXED, RETAIL AND MANUFACTURING GROW… Analysts expect June Housing Starts to be off a little, but Building Permits should edge up. Retail Sales are forecast on the increase, along with the Philadelphia Fed Index of manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of Jul 16 – Jul 20
| Date | Time (ET) | Release | For | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
| M Jul 16 |
08:30 | Retail Sales | Jun | 0.5% | 0.8% | HIGH |
| M Jul 16 |
08:30 | NY Empire Manufacturing Index | Jul | 21.0 | 25.0 | Moderate |
| M Jul 16 |
10:00 | Business Inventories | May | 0.4% | 0.3% | Moderate |
| Tu Jul 17 |
09:15 | Industrial Production | Jun | 0.5% | -0.1% | Moderate |
| Tu Jul 17 |
09:15 | Capacity Utilization | Jun | 78.3% | 77.9% | Moderate |
| W Jul 18 |
08:30 | Housing Starts | Jun | 1.318M | 1.350M | Moderate |
| W Jul 18 |
08:30 | Building Permits | Jun | 1.330M | 1.301M | Moderate |
| W Jul 18 |
10:30 | Crude Inventories | 07/14 | NA | -12.6M | Moderate |
| W Jul 18 |
14:00 | Fed Beige Book | Jun | NA | NA | Moderate |
| Th Jul 19 |
08:30 | Initial Unemployment Claims | 07/14 | 220K | 214K | Moderate |
| Th Jul 19 |
08:30 | Continuing Unemployment Claims | 07/07 | NA | 1.739M | Moderate |
| Th Jul 19 |
08:30 | Philadelphia Fed Index | Jul | 22.0 | 19.9 | HIGH |
| Th Jul 19 |
10:00 | Leading Economic Index (LEI) | Jun | 0.4% | 0.2% | Moderate |
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months…Wall Street still says we’ll have no Fed rate hike in August, a small one in September, then none in November. Note: In the lower chart, a 2% probability of change is a 98% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.75%-2.00%
| After FOMC meeting on: | Consensus |
| Aug 1 | 1.75%-2.00% |
| Sep 26 | 2.00%-2.25% |
| Nov 8 | 2.00%-2.25% |
Probability of change from current policy:
| After FOMC meeting on: | Consensus |
| Aug 1 | 2% |
| Sep 26 | 87% |
| Nov 8 | 19% |
Statistics source: www.markettrends.com
Material in this article from: Inside Lending Market Snapshot
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