QUOTE OF THE WEEK – “Success is the sum of small efforts, repeated day in and day out.”—Robert Collier, American author
NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE
New listings topped 110,000 for the fourth consecutive week, while active inventory remained above 1.1 million homes. Homes continued selling at the same pace as a year ago, signaling a more stable market.
Purchase loan closing costs fell 2.9% from a year ago, and mortgage applications were essentially unchanged last week. Bank of America also found more Americans now favor buying over renting for the first time since 2023.
June’s employment report showed unemployment edging down to 4.2% while oil prices fell below $70 per barrel. Those trends have helped reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged.
REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
DOW SETS RECORD…Stocks finished mixed last week as investors welcomed signs of a cooling labor market while rotating out of semiconductor stocks. The Dow climbed to another record close, while weakness in technology shares weighed on the Nasdaq.
Bond yields moved lower after June’s softer-than-expected jobs report strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve can remain on hold. Investors also welcomed falling oil prices, which continue helping ease inflation concerns.
The latest economic data continues to point toward a balanced backdrop. Employment remains healthy, consumer spending has held up, and lower energy prices are providing welcome relief after months of elevated inflation pressures.
The week ended with the Dow up 1.1%, to 52,900, the S&P 500 essentially unchanged at 7,483, and the Nasdaq down 0.8%, to 25,833.
Mortgage rates remained above 6.5% for a seventh consecutive week, but steady inventory growth and more realistic seller pricing continue creating better opportunities for buyers than earlier this year.DID YOU KNOW…The share of listings with price reductions has continued to decline since March, suggesting sellers are pricing homes more accurately before they hit the market.
THIS WEEK’S FORECAST
| FOMC MINUTES, JOBLESS CLAIMS, INFLATION…Markets will focus on the release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes along with weekly unemployment claims for additional clues about the direction of monetary policy. Investors will be looking for any signs of how policymakers are balancing moderating job growth against persistent inflation. Housing continues to benefit from improving inventory and steady buyer demand, while mortgage rates remain the primary headwind to stronger sales activity. |
FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Recent economic data supports expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged while monitoring inflation and labor market conditions. Note: In the lower chart, the 24.1% probability of change means there’s a 75.9% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%.
| AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: | CONSENSUS |
| Jun 29 | 3.50%-3.75% |
| Sep 16 | 3.75%-4.00% |
| Oct 28 | 3.75%-4.00% |
Probability of change from current policy:
| AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: | CONSENSUS |
| Jun 29 | 24.1% |
| Sep 16 | 45.9% |
| Oct 28 | 45.5% |
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
| Stay visible even when business feels steady. A quick check-in with past clients or referral partners today can become tomorrow’s opportunity, especially in a market where many consumers are waiting for someone they trust to help them take the next step. |
