QUOTE OF THE WEEK – “Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.”—Will Rogers, American humorist and actor
NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE
Homes sold faster than they did a year ago for the first time since April 2024, while active inventory remained above 1.1 million homes for the third consecutive week. New listings held in line with last year’s pace despite July 4th slowdown.
Mortgage demand strengthened in June, signaling that borrowers are gradually reengaging even as mortgage rates remain elevated. The improvement suggests buyers continue adapting to today’s lending environment.
Strong AI-related earnings and resilient economic data continue supporting market performance, even as geopolitical tensions create periodic volatility. Analysts expect market leadership to broaden during the second half of the year.
REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
TECH LEADS GAINS…Stocks moved higher last week as investors looked past geopolitical tensions and focused on expectations for another strong earnings season led by technology companies. Optimism around AI continued supporting broader market sentiment.
Bond yields remained relatively stable as markets awaited fresh inflation data and additional signals from the Federal Reserve. Investors continued monitoring economic reports for clues about the timing of any future policy changes.
Economic fundamentals remained supportive. The labor market continued showing resilience, while easing concerns over energy prices and steady consumer demand helped reinforce confidence in the broader economy.
The week ended with the Dow up 0.5%, to 44,458, the S&P 500 up 0.6%, to 6,263, and the Nasdaq up 1.0%, to 20,611.
Mortgage rates remained near recent levels, while improving inventory and stronger mortgage demand suggest buyers continue adjusting to today’s financing environment.DID YOU KNOW…Homes sold faster than they did a year ago for the first time since April 2024, marking a notable shift after more than a year of softer demand.
THIS WEEK’S FORECAST
CPI, RETAIL SALES, EARNINGS…Markets will focus on June’s inflation report, retail sales, and the start of second-quarter earnings season for insight into the economy’s direction. Investors will be watching whether cooling inflation and continued earnings growth reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in the coming months.
FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months.Recent economic data continues to support expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady while monitoring inflation and labor market conditions. Investors will closely watch this week’s inflation reports for additional clues about the path of monetary policy. Note: In the lower chart, the 34.7% probability of change means there’s a 65.3% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%.
| AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: | CONSENSUS |
| Jun 29 | 3.50%-3.75% |
| Sep 16 | 3.75%-4.00% |
| Oct 28 | 3.75%-4.00% |
| AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: | CONSENSUS |
| Jun 29 | 34.7% |
| Sep 16 | 51.7% |
| Oct 28 | 46.2% |
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
| Consistency builds confidence. Even when clients aren’t ready to buy today, regular communication and timely market updates help position you as the trusted advisor they’ll remember when the time is right. |
