| “I did not have three thousand pairs of shoes. I had one thousand and sixty.”—Imelda Marcos, Filipino politician |
| Both Housing Starts and Building Permits rebounded in June, though the gains were all due to multi-families, as single-families slipped. But buyers are looking at the largest completed single-family home inventory since 2009. A national real estate database reports the median sale price for a home the past four weeks was up just 1.7%, while wages are up by over 4%, year-over year, suggesting affordability for buyers is starting to improve. Analysts found the number of active listings was up 30% annually from April through June, putting national inventory levels not far below where they were at this time of year before the pandemic. |
| MODEST GAINS… Stocks moved up a bit during a volatile week, as traders climbed a wall of worry about tariffs and Fed policy while sending the S&P 500 to a new all-time high, and the Nasdaq close to one. Even with tariff rates moving higher since the start of the year, inflation remains contained and economic growth continues. June CPI inflation was in line with expectations and wholesale PPI inflation fell. Plus, Retail Sales rebounded in June, Industrial Production rose, Initial Jobless Claims fell, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment hit a five-month high on improving inflation expectations. The week ended with the Dow down 0.1%, to 44,342; the S&P 500 UP 0.6%, to 6,297; and the Nasdaq UP 1.5%, to 20,896. Bonds edged ahead overall, although the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% slipped 0.12, to 99.05. Freddie Mac reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate “inched up” in their Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… Choice and affordability are improving for buyers. Last week, active inventory was more than 25% higher than a year ago, while the typical monthly mortgage payment is now the lowest it’s been in four months. |
| NEW AND EXISTING HOME SALES, JOBLESS CLAIMS… Economists expect New Home Sales will gain in June, while Existing Home Sales should match their May sales pace. Initial Unemployment Claims for the week are forecast to move up slightly, but stay well below recession levels, indicating a healthy labor situation, a good sign for the housing market. |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. No move on the Fed Funds Rate is expected next week, but September should see a cut, then a hold in October. Note: In the lower chart, the 4.7% probability of change is a 95.3% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.25%-4.50%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jul 30 4.25%-4.50% Sep 17 4.00%-4.25% Oct 29 4.00%-4.25% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jul 30 4.7% Sep 17 60.7% Oct 29 31.2% |
| Firing off a quick text or email is easy, but if you want to make an impact, go old school—call, or stop by in person. Reaching out should be a daily habit. You don’t have to call or visit dozens of people daily. Just three to five quality connections a day can deliver huge long-term results. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
