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| “Executive ability is deciding quickly and getting somebody else to do the work.”—Earl Nightingale, American motivational speaker and author |
| Spending on residential construction increased 0.7% in February, and is up 6.3% for the year. The gain was led by a 1.4% monthly jump in single-family home building, which is now up 17.2% the past year. Altos Research reports sellers are coming back—last week, new listings logged in 18% higher than a year ago. The total inventory of single-family homes is now 26% higher than a year ago, having climbed 20 weeks in a row. In 2023, homeowner equity totaled almost $32 trillion, more than twice the $15 trillion in 2006, the previous peak. Sellers of course can use this equity for a larger down payment to reduce monthly payments on their next home. |
| WEAK WEEK… The major stock indexes all booked weekly losses, the Dow its worst since March of last year, in spite of a better-than-expected March jobs report, which sparked a big rally on Friday. The U.S. added 303,000 new jobs in March, though most were part time, as full-time employment has in fact declined the past year.Still, the report could delay rate cuts, along with sticky PCE inflation and rising oil prices. Yet ISM Manufacturing saw that sector expand after contracting for 16 months. The far larger services sector also expanded (though at a slower rate), and initial weekly jobless claims are still far from recession territory. The week ended with the Dow down 2.3%, to 38,904; the S&P 500 down 1.0%, to 5,204; and the Nasdaq down 0.8%, to 16,249. Bond prices were hit pretty hard too, though the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% fell only .13, to $99.08. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate showed little movement. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… CoreLogic reports that after reaching an all-time high in October 2023, the average down payment for an American home ended the year at 16%, equating to an average amount of about $84,000. |
| MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS, INFLATION, FED MINUTES… We’ll check the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index to gauge the spring housing market. Economists expect the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) and wholesale Producer Price Index (PPI) to report inflation still significantly above the Fed’s 2% target. We’ll also examine the FOMC Minutes from the Fed’s March meet for indications of when rate cuts might begin. |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. A slim majority of Fed watchers now expects the Fed to hold the rate where it is through June, then deliver the first rate cut in July. Note: In the lower chart, a 6.7% probability of change is an 93.3% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 5.25%-5.50%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS May 1 5.25%-5.50% Jun 12 5.25%-5.50% Jul 31 5.00%-5.25% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS May 1 6.7% Jun 12 49.1% Jul 31 70.2% |
| What you fear the most is probably what you most need to do. Are you afraid to make a video? Go shoot one. Are you afraid to call that past client you haven’t been in touch with? Pick up the phone. Overcome the fear and you’ll see the results you’re looking for on the other side. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
