| “One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.”—William Feather, American publisher and writer |
| January sales of new single-family homes rose for the second month in a row and are up from a year ago. Good news for buyers, the median sale price is down 15.3% from its 2022 peak and supply is up 160% from its 2022 bottom. Unfortunately, existing homes still have an inventory problem, which is one of the reasons Pending Home Sales fell by 4.9% in January. This index of signed contracts on existing homes is also down from its level a year ago But more homes are on the way. Spending on residential construction in January was up overall from December. Most notably, spending on much-needed single-family builds is now 12.5% ahead of the same time last year. |
| STOCKS ROAR AHEAD… Friday, March came in like a lion on Wall Street, as the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq set new record highs, while the Dow ended positive on the day, though off a tick for the week. There were disappointments. February ISM Manufacturing registered a slowdown, Consumer Confidence revealed folks are a bit more pessimistic, and January Durable Goods sent a poor signal about business spending. But Q4 corporate earnings have been strong, and the PCE Price Indexes showed year-over-year inflation continued to cool in January. The Fed focuses on these reads, so traders felt we’re closer to the start of rate cuts. Let’s hope so. The week ended with the Dow down 0.1%, to 39,087; the S&P 500 UP 0.9%, to 5,137; and the Nasdaq UP 1.7%, to 16,275. Bonds did well overall, the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% ending UP 0.11, at $98.28. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate inched up just four basis points (0.04%). Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… Both new listings and total inventory were up last week by a larger margin than the week before. Homes are moving quickly but sellers aren’t getting greedy, as the median listing price is up just 0.4% from a year ago. |
| MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS, SERVICES SECTOR, JOBS… The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications Index should tell us if we get a bounce back in purchase activity. Economists expect the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index to show a small pullback in February, but the huge services sector is still in growth mode. Forecasts for Friday’s February Employment Report call for some slowing in the labor market. |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. The prevailing sentiment on Wall Street is still for no rate cut from the Fed until June. Note: In the lower chart, a 5.0% probability of change is a 95.0% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 5.25%-5.50%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Mar 20 5.25%-5.50% May 1 5.25%-5.50% Jun 12 5.00%-5.25% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Mar 20 5.0% May 1 27.9% Jun 12 71.1% |
| Focus on lead generation now to set the stage for the rest of the year. The best lead is a referral from clients, vendors, or affiliates. Ask them who they’ve met that might need your help or want to find out some information you could give them. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
