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| “The problem with winter sports is that—follow me closely here—they generally take place in winter.”—Dave Barry, American humor columnist and author |
| For the week ending February 3, Realtor.com reports a 12.2% rise in active for-sale inventory, powered by a 12.8% boost in new listings, the biggest jump in nearly three years. In Fannie Mae’s latest National Housing Survey, consumer housing sentiment rose to the highest level in nearly two years. Consumers are also more confident in their job situations, a sign housing sentiment may continue to improve. CoreLogic notes home price appreciation slowed to 3.9% by the end of 2023, down from 14.5% in 2022, back to the 3.9% pre-pandemic rate. The firm forecasts annual price gains slowing to 2.8% in December 2024. |
| OVER 5,000!… Friday, the broad-based S&P 500 closed above 5,000 for the first time ever. Plus, the tech-y Nasdaq posted a 14th weekly gain out of the last 15 weeks, while the blue-chip Dow also ended in positive territory. What got traders so excited? December’s CPI inflation read was revised lower, indicating the Fed could start cutting rates sooner. And 81% of the 332 S&P companies reporting Q4 earnings beat their original estimates. Wall Street also liked initial jobless claims staying at a low level, and an ISM Services report that showed the dominant sector of the U.S. economy is still expanding, with a pickup in new orders, employment, and prices. The week ended with the Dow UP 17 points, to 38,672; the S&P 500 UP 1.4%, to 5,027; and the Nasdaq UP 2.3%, to 15,991. As money flowed to equities, bond prices slumped, the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% ending down 0.99, to $99.13. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate barely moved from the week before in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… In the last three months of 2023, 31.8% of homes for sale were new construction. This was just below the 31.9% recorded in 2022, the highest level for new homes of any fourth quarter on record. |
| HOME BUILDING, INFLATION, RETAIL SALES… The forecast is for builders to show increased activity to start the year, with Housing Starts and Building Permits both up. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to report inflation holding in January. But analysts are predicting a small drop in Retail Sales, evidence of a pullback in consumer spending. All U.S. financial markets will be closed next Monday, February 19, for Presidents’ Day. |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Fed watchers think the central bank will hold the rate in March, then start cutting in May and follow that with a second rate cut in June. Note: In the lower chart, a 16.5% probability of change is an 83.5% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 5.25%-5.50%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Mar 20 5.25%-5.50% May 1 5.00%-5.25% Jun 12 4.75%-5.00% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Mar 20 16.5% May 1 63.6% Jun 12 54.4% |
| We may live in a digital world, but don’t discount the value of person-to-person connections. Avoid turning prospecting into a numbers game. Make it about building relationships—talking to other human beings about their needs, wants, and dreams. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
