| QUOTE OF THE WEEK |
| “I hate housework. You make the beds, you do the dishes, and six months later, you have to start all over again.”—Joan Rivers, American comedian, writer, and television host |
| NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE |
| Builders spent slightly less on residential construction in August, but overall spending was up annually by almost 3%, while spending on new single-family homes also came in ahead for the year. Weekly mortgage applications slipped overall, but purchase applications came in 1% over the week before and 9% higher than a year ago. The refinance application volume is now 186% higher than last year. Data for last week—2024’s “best time to buy a home”—came in perfectly, with prices down and inventory up. According to Realtor.com, compared to last year, the median listing price fell 0.7%, while inventory was nearly 32% higher. |
| REVIEW OF LAST WEEK |
| JOBS SAVE THE DAY… Post-rally profit-taking, plus uncertainty over a dockworker strike and tensions in the Middle East, sent stocks lower until the upside surprise of the Friday jobs report pushed major indexes to eke out weekly gains. September saw a better-than expected 254,000 new Nonfarm Payrolls and a tick down in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.1%. But the median duration of unemployment hit 9.9 weeks, the longest in more than two years. The week also featured the ISM Manufacturing Index, which showed that sector languishing in contraction territory, though ISM Non-Manufacturing posted better-than-expected expansion for the far larger services sector. The week ended with the Dow UP 0.1%, to 42,353; the S&P 500 UP 0.2%, to 5,751; and the Nasdaq UP 0.1%, to 18,138. Bond prices took a hit overall, though the 30-Year UMBS 5.0% slipped just 0.09, to $99.23. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked up a miniscule 4 basis points (0.04%), from its lowest level in two years. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist notes, “home price growth is slowing, inventory is increasing, and incomes continue to rise. As a result, the backdrop for homebuyers this fall is improving and should continue through the rest of the year.” |
| THIS WEEK’S FORECAST |
| MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS, INFLATION, FED MINUTES… We’ll stay focused on the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index to see if buyer interest continues to grow. Economists expect price increases to slow in September, as measured by both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the wholesale Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation measures. Analysts will scrutinize FOMC Minutes from the Fed’s last confab to see where the central bank may go after their half percent rate cut. |
| FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. September’s healthier jobs report pulled back Wall Street expectations to just a quarter percent rate cut in November, followed by quarter percent cuts in December and January. Note: In the lower chart, the 92.8% probability of change is a 92.8% probability the rate will drop. Current rate is 4.75%-5.00%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Nov 7 4.50%-4.75% Dec 18 4.25%-4.50% Jan 29 4.00%-4.25% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Nov 7 92.8% Dec 18 77.1% Jan 29 65.1% |
| BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK |
| Figure out what you need to do each day to reach your yearly goals. If you want 10 new clients for the year, and one prospect in 10 becomes a client, you’ll need to find 100 prospects, or 2 per week. What do you need to do each day to get them? |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
