| QUOTE OF THE WEEK |
| “The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.”—Bernard Baruch, American financier |
| NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE |
| More homes are on the market now than any time since August 2020, and every state has more homes listed than a year ago. The total number is expected to exceed 2020 levels, peaking this summer at about 700,000. Home prices rose modestly in March. The National S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index was up 0.3%, up 6.5% annually. The FHFA index of homes financed with conforming mortgages ticked up 0.1%, up 6.7% from a year ago. The National Association of Realtors says the Fed’s “anticipated Fed rate cut later this year could lead to better conditions,” but for April, their Pending Home Sales index of signed contracts on existing homes fell below March’s level. |
| REVIEW OF LAST WEEK |
| WEEK DOWN, MONTH UP… Though posting losses for the holiday-shortened week, all three major stock indexes finished the month with solid gains, notching the sixth positive month in the last seven. April data on PCE Prices, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, was disappointing. Year-over-year inflation didn’t worsen, but didn’t improve either. The latest GDP read showed the economy grew at a weak 1.3% in Q1. But private-sector wages are up 4.2% the past year, while government pay is up 8.6%, matching the biggest 12-month increase in more than three decades. Plus, low initial jobless claims keep showing a generally solid labor market. The week ended with the Dow down 1.0%, to 38,686; the S&P 500 down 0.5%, to 5,278; and the Nasdaq down 1.1%, to 16,735. Bonds came in flat overall, though the 30-Year UMBS 6.0% fell 0.71, to $99.32. After three weeks of declines, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate moved up a smidge in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… There are now more homes on the market that have had to reduce their prices than in any recent May—6.4% of listings. Experts don’t expect prices to fall, but feel price growth has slowed. |
| THIS WEEK’S FORECAST |
| CONSTRUCTION SPENDING, MANUFACTURING, SERVICES, JOBS… Up for April is the forecast for overall Construction Spending, and we’ll check out the residential part. The ISM Manufacturing Index should show that sector still contracting in May, but ISM Non-Manufacturing is expected to report the dominant services sector barely back in expansion territory. The May read for new Nonfarm Payrolls is predicted below 200,000, with the Unemployment Rate still 3.9%, both figures still too healthy for the Fed to start rate cuts. |
| FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. A small majority of Fed watchers now expect we’ll see the central bank’s first rate cut in September. Note: In the lower chart, the 0.1% probability of change is a 99.9% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 5.25%-5.50%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jun 12 5.25%-5.50% Jul 31 5.25%-5.50% Sep 18 5.00%-5.25% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jun 12 0.1% Jul 31 14.5% Sep 18 53.9% |
| BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK |
| Everything from developing a marketing strategy to hiring new talent flows from establishing a clear brand identity. Take the time to formulate your mission statement and core values—they impact every aspect of your business. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
