| |
| “Indecision may or may not be my problem.”—Jimmy Buffett, American singer-songwriter |
| More homebuyers are appearing as we move into the hot spring selling season. Demand for purchase mortgages rose for the second week in a row—up 7.1% for the week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Good news for buyers. Realtor.com reports the median listing price last week came in lower than it did in the same period a year ago. That marked the first week of year-over-year price declines since July of last year. Inventory is clearly picking up. There were 500,000 single-family homes in active for sale inventory in the week ending March 8—100,000 more than a year ago—a monumental 21% increase. |
| WAITING ON THE FED… The major stock indexes logged modest declines as higher inflation reads and mixed economic data kept traders at bay, waiting for this week’s Fed meeting to provide clarity on how all this affects rate cuts. February’s Treasury Budget reported the budget deficit ballooned to $296 billion from $262 billion a year ago. Thanks to high rates, the interest payment to fund that deficit once again exceeded spending on national defense. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment remains well below where it was before the pandemic, yet Retail Sales rebounded in February, jobless claims are far from recession levels, and manufacturing output saw a small uptick. The week ended with the Dow off 8 points, to 38,715; the S&P 500 down 0.1%, to 5,117; and the Nasdaq down 0.7%, to 15,973. Bond prices were off for the week overall, though the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% went UP .78, to $99.01. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased for the second straight week. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… Younger people are ready to move. A new study found 63% of Gen Z and 59% of millennial respondents said they planned to buy a home in 2024, versus 45% of Gen X and 21% of baby boomers. |
| HOME BUILDING, EXISTING HOME SALES, THE FED… Builders are expected to report increased activity in February, with Housing Starts up. But Building Permits should be down a tad, as pipelines are getting full, while Existing Home Sales will slip a bit. Wednesday, all eyes will be on the Fed, though virtually no one thinks the FOMC Rate Decision will be a cut. |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Inflation isn’t moderating, but Wall Street keeps expecting the Fed will start rate cutting in June. Note: In the lower chart, a 1.0% probability of change is a 99.0% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 5.25%-5.50%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Mar 20 5.25%-5.50% May 1 5.25%-5.50% Jun 12 5.00%-5.25% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Mar 20 1.0% May 1 6.1% Jun 12 56.3% |
| It’s great to come up with lots of ideas. Just be sure to prioritize them, focus on the ones that will do the most for your business, then patiently work them until they’re realized. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
