Market Update for the Week of April 29, 2019

MARKET UPDATE

For the third month in a row, New Home Sales gained, up 4.5% in March, to a 692,000 annual rate, just under their 2017 post-recession high. Sales were up in the Midwest, West, and South, off in the Northeast.

There’s been an upward trend in new home sales since October, as affordability increased. Rates dropped while median prices fell year over year for the last five months, and are now down 9.7% from a year ago.

After February’s biggest monthly gain on record, Existing Home Sales slipped 4.9% in March, returning to a more typical pace. Q1 sales were still 1.2% over Q4 2018, their first quarterly gain in more than a year.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

SETTING RECORDS AGAIN… The broadly  based S&P 500 and the tech-y Nasdaq hit new record highs (though the Dow slipped a tick), as investors sparked to new evidence the economy is still growing very nicely, thank you.

More than 40% of the S&P 500 have reported Q1 earnings, and we’re on track for overall gains. Analysts quibbled over the size of those gains, but, hey, some of these people had forecast profit declines.

The real shocker? The first read on Q1 GDP showed the economy grew at a 3.2% annual rate! Sure, this number may be revised down, but, remember, Q1 typically delivers the lowest GDP number of the year.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.1%, to 26543; the S&P 500 UP 1.2%, to 2940; and the Nasdaq UP 1.9%, to 8146.

Muted inflationary pressures pushed bonds north for the week. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended UP .22, to $102.69. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate inched up again, but remained well below its year-ago level in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?

The job market keeps strengthening and wages are increasing at the fastest rate since the Great Recession which should support housing demand going forward.

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

PENDING HOME SALES, MANUFACTURING, JOBS GAIN, NOT RATES… We should see more evidence of a healthy economy, with Pending  Home Sales gains, continued expansion in ISM Manufacturing, and increases in Nonfarm Payrolls and Hourly Earnings. But rate increases are NOT expected Wednesday from the Fed.

NOTE: Weaker economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Virtually no one sees a rate hike this Wednesday, nor at the next two Fed confabs, though the probability of a rate cut grows. Note: In the lower chart, a 3% probability of change is a 97% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 2.25%-2.50%

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
May  1 2.25%-2.50%
Jun 19 2.25%-2.50%
Jul  31 2.25%-2.50%

 

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
May  1     3%
Jun 19    19%
Jul  31    31%
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
Jim Passi - Citiwide Home Loans

Jim Passi
Regional Manager
NMLS# 158000

1300 East Woodfield Road, Suite 302
Schaumburg, IL 60173
Mobile: 847-899-1813
Email: jpassi@citywidehomeloans.com

This testimony is from my

This testimony is from my experience being a first-time home buyer going through the process of purchasing a home with Jim Passi from City Wide home loans. Let me just start off by saying how reliable, courteous, genuine, informational and hardworking Jim Passi is. Jim is not like a lot of other loan officers. My house I purchased for under 160 grand, not a huge real estate deal. From experience with other loan officers they don’t want to deal with a smaller purchase or work on a loan that might be difficult. With our credit score being low and work history not at expectations I was almost positive I would have to wait a year or maybe two years before being approved and close on a house. I definitely had doubts that I would be a home owner, Jim worked hard and stayed in contact with us updating us almost every day of the process, even during evening hours and weekends during the stressful underwriting process. Communication is key and I give Jim a 5-star rating with that. I consider myself an average blue-collar hard-working guy that has experienced hardships during life. Jim was never turned away by the hardships, he was understanding of them and I feel like it made him work even harder to make this process a success.

I just successfully closed on a house with my fiancé. Jim did what I thought was impossible. Again, with our credit score being under 600 and spotty work history it was a difficult process that became a success with a lot of hard work. Jim also got me the best interest rate that was available. He was constantly checking the market and keeping me informed on what was available. He wanted me to take my time and make sure what rate was in our best interest. Jim has a cretin genuine care for his clients and speaking with him so much during this process I know he truly cares and wants to help people. Even after we closed Jim called and congratulated us with excitement. Jim made a dream come true for us that I was sure we would have to wait for. I’m just going to say if he made my dream come true with all the problems I had he can make a lot of others come true for any one in a similar situation. Jim Passi is highly recommended.

Tim A.