Market Update for the Week of May 21, 2018

Info That Hits Us Where We Live

In home building, the overall upward trend remains, as April Housing Starts were 10.5% ahead of a year ago, at a 1.287 million annual rate. Single-family starts were up 0.1% for the month, though overall starts declined 3.7%.

Single-family permits were up 0.9% in April, which bodes well for the future, and the number of single-family units now under construction is at the highest pace since 2008.

First American‘s chief economist also noted an uptrend in housing completions–“a 14.8% increase from the April 2017 figure…a modest step toward producing enough housing to meet market demand.”

Business Tip of the Week

Take breaks. A short walk, a quick bike ride, lunch away from your desk, all can renew your focus and make you more productive, not less.

Review of Last Week

A STUMBLE NOT A TUMBLE… Investors shifted their focus from solid corporate earnings to the less certain macroeconomic environment. Equities stumbled for the week, tripped up by worries over trade talks and rate hikes.

The typical response to risk is caution. So as China and NAFTA trade agreements remained up in the air, no one on Wall Street was wildly bidding up stocks, while the strengthening economy fueled concerns about more rate hikes.

Positive labor market conditions and high consumer confidence drove April’s Retail Sales gain. Additionally, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) of 10 key economic trends headed up for the seventh month in a row.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.5%, to 24715; the S&P down 0.5%, to 2713; and the Nasdaq down 0.7%, to 7354.

Bonds saw some gains Friday, but not enough to erase earlier losses. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down .39, at $101.27. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up to a level last seen in 2011 in Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

Did You Know?

A recent survey of mobile app users found that 31% use their financial services app the most, a usage result that only trails weather apps, at 33%, and social media apps, at 55%.

This Week’s Forecast

HOME SALES TAKE A BREATHER, WE EAVESDROP ON THE FED Analysts forecast a slower pace for New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales in April. But new homes sold should stay near 700K, with existing homes comfortably north of 5.5M. FOMC Minutes give us a peek at what was said at the Fed’s last meet. Could be useful. 

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of May 21 – May 25

Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
W
May 23
08:30 New Home Sales Apr 677K 694K Moderate
W
May 23
10:30 Crude Inventories 05/19 NA -1.4M Moderate
W
May 23
14:00 FOMC Minutes May NA NA HIGH
Th
May 24
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 05/19 220K 222K Moderate
Th
May 24
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 05/12 NA 1.707M Moderate
Th
May 24
10:00 Existing Home Sales Apr 5.57M 5.60M Moderate
F
May 25
08:30 Durable Goods Orders Apr -1.6% 2.6% Moderate
F
May 25
08:30 Durable Goods Orders-ex transportation Apr 0.6% 0.0% Moderate
F
May 25
10:00 U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment May 98.8 98.8 Moderate

Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Nothing’s changed with the Fed futures market’s expectation of a 0.25% June hike. The rate should hold there until September when there’s a good chance of another small bump. Note: In the lower chart, a 100% probability of change is a 0% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.50%-1.75%

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jun 13 1.75%-2.00%
Aug   1 1.75%-2.00%
Sep 26 2.00%-2.25%

 

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jun 13        100%
Aug   1            9%
Sep 26          81%

Statistics source: www.markettrends.com

Material in this article from: Inside Lending Market Snapshot

This is an advertisement for Jim Passi. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Citywide Home Loans and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Citywide Home Loans. Citywide CO NMLS #67180. Regulated by the Division of Real Estate.

The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
Posted in
Jim Passi - Citiwide Home Loans

Jim Passi
Regional Manager
NMLS# 158000

1284 West Northwest Hwy.
Palatine, IL 60067
Mobile: 847-899-1813
Email: jim.passi@alamedamortgage.com

What a way to start

What a way to start off for 2019! Thank you Jim and your team of experts on providing financing for my new home! While this may not be the first home I have purchased, it was the smoothest! From the first time we met, I knew I made the right choice. You explained the process and you kept your word on staying in touch with me and answering all my questions. Your knowledge and patience is to be admired. The professionalism you displayed by showing up on time to the closing, when no one else did, AND you stayed to the end. Thank you for your support. I will gladly recommend you to anyone I know. A great experience and a new friend! Thank you again Jim, for everything.

Blair S.