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| “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, it’s just possible you haven’t grasped the situation.”—Jean Kerr, American author and playwright |
| The Pending Home Sales measure of signed contracts on existing homes ended the summer strong, up 4% in August and nearly 4% ahead of a year ago. Plus, all regions of the country saw year-over-year gains. Case-Shiller national home price growth slowed in July to just 1.7% annually, the slowest pace in two years. They concluded, “Looking ahead, the housing market appears to be settling into a new, more measured equilibrium.” The Mortgage Bankers Association reported affordability improved in August, as monthly payments dipped for the fourth straight month, adding “moderating home-price appreciation…will continue to ease affordability constraints.” Note: Due to the D.C. shutdown, there were no construction spending or jobs reports. |
| WHAT GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN?… Traders shrugged off the federal government shutdown and sent the three major indexes to record highs on expectations the Fed would keep cutting rates the rest of the year. With the Department of Labor shuttered, Wall Street keyed on ADP’s September report of a decline of 32,000 private-sector jobs. This bolstered feelings the Fed would cut rates again to shore up a softening labor market. Receding Consumer Confidence indicated people worry about job availability, even though job openings increased to more than 7.2 million in August. And two reads showed the economy’s huge services sector is still growing. The week ended with the Dow up 1.1%, to 46,758; the S&P 500 also UP 1,1%, to 6,716; and the Nasdaq UP 1.3%, to 22,781. Bonds ticked higher overall, the 30-Year UMBS 5.0% moving UP 15 basis points, to 99.19. Freddie Mac reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up again, “but remains below its 52-week average.” Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… Realtor.com says now is the best time to buy a home: “By mid-October, buyers across much of the country may finally find the combination of inventory, pricing, and negotiating power they’ve been waiting for.” |
| MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS, FED MINUTES, CONSUMER SENTIMENT… We’ll check weekly MBA Mortgage Applications to see if buyer activity continues to run ahead of last year. Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes may hint at where the Fed is going with rate cuts for the rest of the year. The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for October is expected to remain at moderate levels. |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Recent weaker labor market data has made Fed watchers even more certain we’ll see two more rate cuts to close out 2025, though no move in January. Note: In the lower chart, the 94.6% probability of change means there’s only a 5.4% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.00%-4.25%. |
| AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: | CONSENSUS |
| Oct 29 | 3.75%-4.00% |
| Dec 10 | 3.50%-3.75% |
| Jan 28 | 3.50%-3.75% |
Probability of change from current policy:
| AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: | CONSENSUS |
| Oct 29 | 94.6% |
| Dec 10 | 83.0% |
| Jan 28 | 46.5% |
| Successful people are motivated by more than the desire to make money—they’re driven by purpose. Purpose aligns your business with what you’re passionate about. It gives meaning to your work and sustains you in tough times. Your business becomes more than doing transactions—it becomes a mission. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
