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| ““I have had a perfectly wonderful evening, but this wasn’t it.”—Groucho Marx, American comedian, actor, writer, and singer |
| Sales of new single-family homes unexpectedly shot up 7.4% in March and are now up 6.0% from a year ago. Good news for buyers, the median sales price is down 7.5% the past year and 12.3% below its October 2022 peak. Existing home sales fell 5.9% in March, down 2.4% from a year ago. But sales of homes at $500,000 and above are up the past year, while sales of homes below that are flat or falling. Annual home price growth came in at 2.7%. Zillow reports inventory is steadily rising, tracking closely to normal seasonal trends. In March, sellers put more than 375,000 homes on the market, up 19% from a year ago, pushing inventory to the highest level since 2020. |
| RELIEF RALLY… With the President saying he has “no intention of firing” Fed Chair Powell and indicating he won’t play hardball with China, traders breathed a sigh of relief and sent the three major stock indexes to big weekly gains. Leading Indicators were off for March, same as the Existing Home Sales covered above. But New Home Sales surprised to the upside, and Durable Goods Orders showed a pickup in business spending in March. Initial jobless claims continue to run nowhere near recession levels, and the corporate earnings season is off to a solid start, as 75% of reporting companies came in with earnings above estimates. The week ended with the Dow UP 2.5%, to 40,114; the S&P 500 UP 4.6%, to 5,525; and the Nasdaq UP 6.7%, to 17,383. Bonds edged ahead overall, the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% UP 0.06, to 99.07. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased, staying well below its year-ago level. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… A national online database reports 44.4% of January-March home sales included seller concessions, such as money for repairs, closing costs, or mortgage rate buydowns. That figure was 39.9% a year ago. |
| PENDING HOME SALES, HOME PRICES, CONSTRUCTION SPENDING, INFLATION, JOBS… The Pending Home Sales measure of signed contracts on existing homes is forecast to edge down in March. Home price growth is expected to keep moderating according to the February S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Analysts predict another uptick in Construction Spending for March and we’ll check the residential part. They also see inflation waning by March PCE Prices, the Fed’s favorite measure, and the labor market still healthy, with an increase in April Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate holding at 4.2%. |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Fed watchers in the futures market still see rate cuts in June and July, although sentiment is eroding for the July drop. Note: In the lower chart, the 9.7% probability of change is a 90.3% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.25%-4.50%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS May 7 4.25%-4.50% Jun 18 4.00%-4.25% Jul 30 3.75%-4.00% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS May 7 9.3% Jun 18 64.5% Jul 30 53.2% |
| People trust and do business with people they like. Look for shared experiences, and for ways to be relatable, collaborative, and encouraging. Create a sense of partnership and you’ll close more deals. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
