| QUOTE OF THE WEEK |
| “What’s another word for Thesaurus?”—Steven Wright, American comedian |
| NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE |
| Existing Home Sales finished the year up 2.2% in December and up 9.3% for the year—the fastest annual increase since 2021. It was the third straight month of yearly gains, with inventory higher than the same time a year ago. Realtor.com reports that last week saw “a pick-up in new listings,” while “prices fell annually by the largest margin in the data’s history for four of the last five weeks, setting buyers up for a more friendly market.” An estimated 1.628 million new housing units were completed in 2024, up more than 12% over 2023. Title firm First American called this “good news for a housing market that has been underbuilt for over a decade.” |
| REVIEW OF LAST WEEK |
| UP AGAIN… The major stock indexes gained two weeks in a row, as President Trump’s comments on interest rates, oil prices, regulations, and taxes, and hints at a softer stance on China tariffs lifted investor sentiment. Traders’ spirits were also elevated by a strong start to Q4 corporate earnings season, but all was not copacetic economically, as continuing jobless claims rose to their highest level in more than three years. Consumer Sentiment also came in weaker than expected. But we did get that better-than-expected December Existing Home Sales report, plus the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing read finally landed in expansion territory. The week ended with the Dow UP 2.2%, to 44,424; the S&P 500 UP 1.7%, to 6,101; and the Nasdaq also UP 1.7%, to 19,954. On the week, bonds edged up a tick overall, though the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% edged down a tick, 0.03, to $98.13. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate headed back down. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… The Census Bureau reports the median size of new homes started fell from 2,326 square feet in Q3 2021 to 2,158 square feet in Q3 2024—a difference of 168 square feet, good news for buyers looking for smaller, more affordable homes. |
| THIS WEEK’S FORECAST |
| NEW AND PENDING HOME SALES, HOME PRICES, INFLATION, THE FED… Housing experts are forecasting December gains for both New Home Sales and the Pending Home Sales index of signed contracts on existing homes. November’s S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index should report no yearly gain. Economists expect December PCE Prices to show the annual inflation rate steady, though not diminishing. Virtually no one thinks the Fed’s FOMC Rate Decision will move rates, but there will be much interest in Chair Powell’s presser after the announcement. |
| FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Wall Streeters still see no rate change at this year’s first three Fed meets, although sentiment is growing for a cut come May. Note: In the lower chart, the 0.5% probability of change is a 99.5% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.25%-4.50%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jan 29 4.25%-4.50% Mar 19 4.25%-4.50% May 7 4.25%-4.50% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jan 29 0.5% Mar 19 28.3% May 7 48.1% |
| BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK |
| If you try to move forward but feel overwhelmed, just take it one step at a time. Break down big goals into smaller, achievable objectives. Instead of worrying about what you think you should have accomplished each day, celebrate your small wins, such as making a follow-up call or finalizing your plan of action. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
