| QUOTE OF THE WEEK |
| “They didn’t want it good, they wanted it Wednesday.”—Robert A. Heinlein, American science fiction writer |
| NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE |
| Although builders spent a tick less in March than in February, spending on residential construction was 4.4% ahead of a year ago. Even better, spending on single-family homes was up a whopping 18.3% from a year ago. Last year’s brief decline in home prices is clearly over. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose in February, the eighth straight month of annual growth, and prices were 1.3% above their 2022 high. Realtor.com reports the total active inventory of homes for sale last week was 33.3% higher than a year ago, the 25th straight week of gains. New listings were up 10.4%, and the median listing price was 0.5% lower than last year. |
| REVIEW OF LAST WEEK |
| JOBS FALL, STOCKS RISE… March’s drop to 175,000 new jobs, unemployment up at 3.9%, and tiny gain in hourly earnings, gave traders hope the Fed might cut rates sooner. This sent the major stock indexes up nicely for the week. More signs of a slowing economy came as ISM indexes showed both sectors of the economy—manufacturing and services—contracted in March, while total international trade volume declined substantially. The Fed met and didn’t touch the rate, as expected. Fed Chair Powell noted inflation remains sticky, and although no rate hikes are likely, rate cuts won’t be coming any time soon. But that was two days before the March jobs report. The week ended with the Dow UP 1.1%, to 38,676; the S&P 500 UP 0.5%, to 5,128; and the Nasdaq UP 1.4%, to 16,156. Bond prices floated up as well, the 30-Year UMBS 6.0% ending UP .23, to $99.25. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate moved up a tiny amount. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… Millennials (age 28 to 43), the largest living generation, are a critical demographic for real estate. Among generations, in 2023, millennials were second to baby boomers in after-tax income and share of home sales. |
| THIS WEEK’S FORECAST |
| MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS, JOBLESS CLAIMS, CONSUMER SENTIMENT… A light week for reports. We’ll check the MBA Mortgage Applications Index to see if purchase applications reaccelerate in the spring buying season. Initial Jobless Claims should stay well below recession levels. The preliminary May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is expected to remain tepid, though still above where it was a year ago. |
| FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. With new signs of a slowing economy, the Fed Funds futures market does not expect to see the first rate cut until September. Note: In the lower chart, the 8.4% probability of change is a 91.6% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 5.25%-5.50%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jun 12 5.25%-5.50% Jul 31 5.25%-5.50% Sep 18 5.00%-5.25% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jun 12 8.4% Jul 31 34.9% Sep 18 67.4% |
| BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK |
| Storytelling is a powerful way to demonstrate your value. Instead of leaning on statistics, graphs, pie charts, and infographics, tell prospects engaging stories about what you’ve done for your clients. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
