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| “If you can’t fly, then run. If you can’t run, then walk. If you can’t walk, then crawl, but whatever you do, you have to keep moving.” — Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. |
| The Mortgage Bankers Association reports demand for purchase loans was up 6% compared to the week before. Requests to refinance rocketed up 53% for the week and are now 17% ahead of a year ago. Realtor.com revealed that active listings moved up in December by nearly 5% year-over-year. They said the pickup could be attributed to the continuing climb in new listings, which are now up more than 9% annually. A national online real estate database found the median mortgage payment in December was nearly $400 lower than its October peak. Buyer demand came in 10% ahead of November, at the highest level since August. |
| BACK TO WINNING… Stocks chalked up their tenth week of gains in 11 weeks, despite a relatively soft start to earnings season and a hotter than expected inflation report, but traders took it all in stride. The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a bit hotter than expected, but after taking out volatile food and energy prices, Core CPI fell to its lowest reading in two and a half years. The Producer Price Index reported the second straight month of declining wholesale prices, leading traders to believe inflation isn’t likely to re-accelerate. Hopes for a soft landing stayed alive with low weekly jobless claims. The week ended with the Dow UP 0.3%, to 37,593; the S&P 500 UP 1.8%, to 4,784; and the Nasdaq UP 3.1%, to 14,973. Bond prices slid a tick overall, though the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% finished UP 0.83, at $100.11. For the second straight week, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate didn’t move materially in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… The CoreLogic Home Price Index was up 5.2% year-over-year in November, the fifth straight month of annual gains. Their Chief Economist noted, “This continued strength…speaks to the pent-up demand.” |
| HOME BUILDING, EXISTING HOME SALES, RETAIL SALES… Not surprisingly, December Housing Starts are expected to fall off a bit due to the holidays. But Building Permits are forecast up, as builders remain in ramp-up mode. Analysts predict Existing Home Sales will slip a tad in December, while Retail Sales head up thanks to holiday shopping. |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Anticipating further decreases in inflation, Fed watchers expect the central bankers will make no move in January, cut the rate by a quarter percent in March, then another quarter percent in May. Note: In the lower chart, a 4.7% probability of change is a 95.3% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 5.25%-5.50%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jan 31 5.25%-5.50% Mar 20 5.00%-5.25% May 1 4.75%-5.00% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jan 31 4.7% Mar 20 73.3% May 1 75.4% |
| The best way to start the new year? Call new leads, old leads, former clients, current and potential business and referral partners. Short of talking face-to-face, a phone call is the most powerful personal connection you can make. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
