 QUOTE OF THE WEEK |
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| “Speak when you are angry—and you’ll make the best speech you’ll ever regret.”—Laurence J. Peter, Canadian educator, psychologist, and writer |
 NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE |
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| Realtor.com reports 70% of potential sellers think it’s a good time to sell. 81% expect to get their asking price or more, 75% think they’ll sell in the average time or less, and 63% don’t expect to make significant concessions.Housing Starts contracted in March the most in a year, as builders focused on completing projects. The monthly annual pace of home completions was at a faster rate than all but two months from 2020 to 2023.Looking to the future, Building Permits in March increased over February, just a smidge below where they were last year. In addition, builder confidence edged up a point in April, and 61% of builders used sales incentives. |
 REVIEW OF LAST WEEK |
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| A POWELL PLUMMET… In a speech Wednesday, Fed chair Jerome Powell said tariffs could cause “higher inflation and slower growth.” Stocks crumbled and, even after crawling back a bit on Thursday, ended down for the week.Traders (and most of the media) ignored Powell’s comments that “the U.S. economy is still in a solid position,” and “longer-term inflation expectations, for the most part, appear to remain well anchored.”Folks also ignored March increases in manufacturing and mining output and a 1.4% bump in Retail Sales. Some put that to buyers beating tariff price hikes, as they overlooked the robust 1.8% sales gain at restaurants and bars.The week ended with the Dow down 2.7%, to 39,142; the S&P 500 down 1.5%, to 5,283; and the Nasdaq down 2.6%, to 16,286.Bonds headed in the opposite direction, the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% UP 0.84, to 99.01. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked up but remained well below its level a year ago. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… The National Association of Realtors found that 81% of agents say staging improves buyer visualization, 89% noted it has a positive impact on the sale, and that staged homes generate more interest, sell faster, and tend to get stronger offers. |
 THIS WEEK’S FORECAST |
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| NEW AND EXISTING HOME SALES, JOBLESS CLAIMS… Analysts expect an increase in New Home Sales in March over February, as builders add to the pipeline. Sellers are also listing more homes, yet Existing Home Sales numbers are still forecast to be off slightly for March. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims, an accepted measure of the health of the labor market, are predicted to remain well below levels that indicate a recession is in the offing. |
 FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH |
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| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. All the tariff inflation talk hasn’t distracted Wall Street from anticipating a Fed rate cut in June, and another in July. Note: In the lower chart, the 12.3% probability of change is an 87.7% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.25%-4.50%.AFTER FOMC MEETING ON:CONSENSUSMay 74.25%-4.50% Jun 184.00%-4.25%Jul 303.75%-4.00%Probability of change from current policy:AFTER FOMC MEETING ON:CONSENSUSMay 7 12.3%Jun 18 69.8%Jul 30 60.3% |
 BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK |
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| If a task feels overwhelming, remember that you don’t have to do it all now. Commit to making progress on it for just five minutes. Often that will give you the momentum to keep going. If it doesn’t, you’ll still have gotten closer to completing the task. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
