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| “Money does not make you happy but it quiets the nerves.”—Sean O’Casey, Irish playwright |
| The Mortgage Bankers Association reports, “Purchase activity…continues to show moderate growth on an annual basis,” although it declined for the week by about 1%, while the share of adjustable-rate mortgages increased. Owning a home is becoming more attractive than renting. The median national rent is holding steady at $2,295, while homes for sale are seeing more price cuts—about 42% of active listings last week—and inventory is growing. A new study revealed there were nationally over 72% more condo sellers than buyers in August—the fifth straight month with at least a 70% difference—resulting in the strongest buyer’s market for condos in 12 years. |
| FALL WEATHER… After setting record highs earlier in the week, the three major indexes weathered a big fall on Friday, as traders staged a broad-based selloff in reaction to fresh trade tensions between the U.S. and China. It all started when Beijing decided to tighten export controls on rare earth materials. President Trump then posted that he was weighing a “massive increase” for tariffs on Chinese imports. At least the expansion in consumer credit in August was miniscule. And the minutes from the Fed’s last meet suggested additional rate cuts totaling 50 basis points (another half percent) by the end of the year. Note: Due to the D.C. shutdown, last week there were no reports on the August trade balance, weekly initial and continuing jobless claims, August wholesale inventories, and the September treasury budget. The week ended with the Dow down 2.7%, to 45,480; the S&P 500 down 2.4%, to 6,553; and the Nasdaq down 2.5%, to 22,204. Overall, bonds headed north, though the 30-Year UMBS 5.0% slipped 11 basis points, to 99.08. Freddie Mac reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell 4 basis points, as “rates have settled in at their lowest level in about a year.” Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… A new survey revealed 82% of respondents use AI tools (ChatGPT, Gemini, etc.) for insight into the housing market. But agents were “rated the most accurate source of market information, ahead of AI, family and friends, and the news.” |
| HOME BUILDING, RETAIL SALES, INFLATION… Economists are forecasting an increase in builder activity for September, with both Housing Starts and Building Permits ahead for the month. Retail Sales should also gain, as consumers keep supporting the economy. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show a small bump in inflation for wholesale prices. Today, the stock markets are open, but the bond markets are closed in observance of Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples’ Day. |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. The futures market is buying the projections put forth in the minutes from the Fed’s last meet—two cuts totaling a half percent this year. Note: In the lower chart, the 97.8% probability of change means there’s only a 2.2% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.00%-4.25%. |
| AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: | CONSENSUS |
| Oct 29 | 3.75%-4.00% |
| Dec 10 | 3.50%-3.75% |
| Jan 28 | 3.50%-3.75% |
Probability of change from current policy:
| AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: | CONSENSUS |
| Oct 29 | 97.8% |
| Dec 10 | 97.8% |
| Jan 28 | 41.0% |
| No one succeeds alone. A strong network can provide needed resources, valuable referrals, strategic insight, and emotional support. Building relationships with peers, partners, and mentors can boost your growth in ways that hard work alone cannot. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
