Inside Lending | Market Snapshot for the Week of September 22, 2025

September 22, 2025/
  QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“Canadians are very well behaved; they don’t throw their food.”—Calvin Trillin, American journalist, humorist, and poet
  NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE
  Mortgage applications spiked almost 30% last week, driven by refis, but purchase applications also went up a healthy 12% compared to the prior week and are 20% higher than the same week a year ago. Buyer activity is growing for new homes. The Mortgage Bankers Association noted that in August, “estimated new home sales increased for the third consecutive month to its strongest sales pace in almost a year.” Both Housing Starts and Building Permits dipped in August, as developers focused on completions, up 8.4% over July. And the industry index of builder sentiment in September hit a six-month high for future sales expectations.
  REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
  TWO THUMBS UP… The three major indexes rallied to record highs Thursday after the Fed finally cut rates. They then set new record highs Friday as progress was made in the latest trade talks between China and the U.S.
In addition to last week’s cut, the dot plots signaled Fed voters now expect two more rate cuts by year end. Traders still worried about the labor market softening causing these moves, although initial jobless claims fell for the week.
Plus, August Retail Sales and Industrial Production pointed to increased consumer spending and manufacturing activity. And the Philadelphia Fed Index surged, signaling stronger regional manufacturing growth.
The week ended with the Dow UP 1.0%, to 46,315; the S&P 500 UP 1.2%, to 6,664; and the Nasdaq UP 2.2%, to 22,631.
Bonds slipped a tiny bit overall, the 30-Year UMBS 5.0% landing at 99.17. Freddie Mac reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate “decreased yet again,” down another 9 basis points in their Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.
DID YOU KNOW… DownPaymentResource.com is collaborating with both Realtor.com and Zillow to give buyers access to all the down payment assistance (DPA) programs available for each active MLS listing on those sites.
  THIS WEEK’S FORECAST
  HOME SALES, INFLATION, GDP… Economists expect August New Home Sales to register a gain, but Existing Home Sales to score a small drop. PCE Prices, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, is forecast to inch up a tad for August, but this week’s GDP-Third Estimate should report that the economy grew in Q2 at a very decent 3.3% annual clip. 
  FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH
  Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Now that the Fed has made its first rate cut this year, the futures market expects two more cuts to close out 2025, then a hold in January. Note: In the lower chart, the 91.9% probability of change means there’s only an 8.1% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.00%-4.25%.
AFTER FOMC MEETING ON:CONSENSUS
Oct 293.75%-4.00%
Dec 103.50%-3.75%
Jan 283.50%-3.75%

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON:CONSENSUS
Oct 29 91.9%
Dec 10 80.6%
Jan 28 46.9%
  BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK
The key to success is to consistently take action. Prospect every day, follow up leads immediately, and keep in touch with present and past clients. You’ll thrive, no matter what.
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
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Jim Passi - Citiwide Home Loans

Jim Passi
Regional Manager
NMLS# 158000

1121 E. Main Street, Suite 121
St. Charles, IL 60174
Mobile: 847-899-1813
Email: jim.passi@alamedamortgage.com

Email Me

This testimony is from my

This testimony is from my experience being a first-time home buyer going through the process of purchasing a home with Jim Passi from City Wide home loans. Let me just start off by saying how reliable, courteous, genuine, informational and hardworking Jim Passi is. Jim is not like a lot of other loan officers. My house I purchased for under 160 grand, not a huge real estate deal. From experience with other loan officers they don’t want to deal with a smaller purchase or work on a loan that might be difficult. With our credit score being low and work history not at expectations I was almost positive I would have to wait a year or maybe two years before being approved and close on a house. I definitely had doubts that I would be a home owner, Jim worked hard and stayed in contact with us updating us almost every day of the process, even during evening hours and weekends during the stressful underwriting process. Communication is key and I give Jim a 5-star rating with that. I consider myself an average blue-collar hard-working guy that has experienced hardships during life. Jim was never turned away by the hardships, he was understanding of them and I feel like it made him work even harder to make this process a success.

I just successfully closed on a house with my fiancé. Jim did what I thought was impossible. Again, with our credit score being under 600 and spotty work history it was a difficult process that became a success with a lot of hard work. Jim also got me the best interest rate that was available. He was constantly checking the market and keeping me informed on what was available. He wanted me to take my time and make sure what rate was in our best interest. Jim has a cretin genuine care for his clients and speaking with him so much during this process I know he truly cares and wants to help people. Even after we closed Jim called and congratulated us with excitement. Jim made a dream come true for us that I was sure we would have to wait for. I’m just going to say if he made my dream come true with all the problems I had he can make a lot of others come true for any one in a similar situation. Jim Passi is highly recommended.

Tim A.