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| “Do not let what you cannot do interfere with what you can do.”—John Wooden, American basketball coach and player |
| The Mortgage Bankers Association reports homebuyers came out in strength for the second week in a row, pushing purchase mortgage applications up for the week, to a level 18% higher than a year ago. Buyers are taking advantage of more choices—with the number of homes for sale at the highest level since December 2019—more time to choose—with homes on the market longer—and the median price the same as last year. After dropping in March, Housing Starts rebounded a bit in April, all due to multi-unit projects. Single-family starts and Building Permits both declined, as builders focused on completions, which have been running strong since last year. |
| TARIFFS DOWN, STOCKS UP… After the U.S. and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days while they worked out a long-term deal, the S&P 500 and the Dow exploded, wiping out the year’s losses, while the Nasdaq gained over 7%. Wall Street fears tariff wars will boost inflation and slow the economy, but the week’s data revealed those fears so far are unfounded. The latest CPI pegged inflation since the April 2nd tariffs at 2.3%, the lowest level in four years. Grocery store prices dropped the most since 2020, including the biggest drop in egg prices since 1984, while wholesale prices fell for the month. As for economic growth, post-tariff April Retail Sales rose to an all-time high. The week ended with the Dow UP 3.4%, to 42,655; the S&P 500 UP 5.3%, to 5,958; and the Nasdaq UP 7.2%, to 19,211. Bond prices dipped overall, the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% dropping 0.74, to 98.30. In Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose slightly but stayed well below its level a year ago. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… Optimal Blue reports rate locks on purchase mortgages were up 7.5% month-over month in April, while both the average purchase price and the average loan amount fell from the month before. |
| NEW AND EXISTING HOME SALES, MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS, JOBLESS CLAIMS… Analysts expect Existing Home Sales to pick up for April, but New Home Sales to dip. We’ll keep following the MBA Mortgage Applications Index to look for continued gains in buyer activity. Economists predict Initial Jobless Claims will stay well below recession levels. |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Positive hard data on inflation and the economy pushed the Street to move the year’s first rate cut to September. Note: In the lower chart, the 8.4% probability of change is a 91.6% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.25%-4.50%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jun 18 4.25%-4.50% Jul 30 4.25%-4.50% Sep 17 4.00%-4.25% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jun 18 8.4% Jul 30 34.9% Sep 17 71.9% |
| Take five. Your ideas and creativity will flow much more freely if you give yourself a change of pace. Take a walk or go sit in the fresh air with a cup of coffee instead of sitting at your desk waiting for inspiration. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
