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| “Buy land, they’re not making it anymore.”—Mark Twain, American writer and humorist |
| The Mortgage Bankers Association reported purchase mortgage applications rose for the week, up 11% overall, and up 13% for conventional mortgages—“a surprisingly strong move” for people who are “more apt to be move-up buyers.” Realtor.com says the spring housing market is “in full bloom.” Last week, the number of homes for sale hit its highest level since 2019, with new listings the highest since mid-2022, and seller price reductions ahead of last year. ATTOM data found the most active times of the year are ahead. From 2015 through 2024, June saw more than 4.7 million home sales—the most for any month—followed by August (over 4.6 million) and July (over 4.5 million). |
| TRADE WINDS… The atmosphere got stormy for a while on Wall Street, then trade winds blew fair—thanks to a tariff deal with the U.K. and the weekend start to talks with China—so stocks ended off just a bit for the week. Downward pressure on equities came when the March trade deficit hit a new record, as imports surged to beat tariffs. Also, thanks to weak productivity, Q1 unit labor costs jumped, although that didn’t hurt Q1 corporate profits. But the ISM Services read showed growth accelerated in the services sector in April—and that accounts for about 72% of the economy. Plus, initial jobless claims dropped, remaining far below recession-like levels. The week ended with the Dow down 0.2%, to 41,249; the S&P 500 down 0.5%, to 5,660; and the Nasdaq down 0.3%, to 17,929. Bond prices overall were also down slightly, the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% slipping 0.11, to 99.04. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate unchanged from last week. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… First American Data & Analytics reported the rate of home price growth in March hit a 13-year low, up just 1.8%, noting “household income growth is now outpacing house price appreciation,” increasing affordability. |
| HOME BUILDING, RETAIL SALES, INFLATION… The forecasts are for Housing Starts to move up in April but for Building Permits to slow a tiny bit. April Retail Sales should continue to increase, as the economy remains in growth mode. After dipping in March, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to report inflation inched up a tad in April. |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Given Fed Chair Powell’s comments last week, the Street doesn’t expect the year’s first rate cut until July, then a hold in September. Note: In the lower chart, the 17.3% probability of change is an 82.7% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.25%-4.50%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jun 18 4.25%-4.50% Jul 30 4.00%-4.25% Sep 17 4.00%-4.25% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jun 18 17.3% Jul 30 59.1% Sep 17 41.8% |
| Facts tell, but stories sell. Don’t skimp on the facts when presenting to prospects, but also put together a story about how their purchase will enhance their lives. Be specific, including details they can relate to. Storytelling is a game changer. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
