| QUOTE OF THE WEEK |
| “And now we welcome the new year. Full of things that have never been.”—Rainer Maria Rilke, Austrian poet and novelist |
| NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE |
| The Pending Home Sales measure of signed contracts on existing homes headed up in November for the fourth month in a row, nearly 7% ahead of last year, and at the highest level since the beginning of 2023. Residential builders spent more on construction overall in November versus the month before. That was 3% more than a year ago, with the monthly gain driven by spending on much-needed single-family homes. Home prices are rising, but slower. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National index was up 3.6% annually in October, down from 3.9% the prior month. The yearly gain in the FHFA home price index was 2% lower than a year ago. |
| REVIEW OF LAST WEEK |
| NO SANTA… Friday, the Santa Claus rally period ended with weekly losses for the three major indexes. However, Santa didn’t show in January 2024 either, yet the broad-based S&P 500 went on to post a 23.3% gain for the year. Traders are hopeful but not happy about the economy, as the December ISM report showed manufacturing contracted for the ninth straight month. Wall Street also continues to worry the Fed will slow rate cuts this year. But stocks rebounded Friday, helped by the low level of initial jobless claims, reflecting a situation where employers are reluctant to let workers go because they have an optimistic view of the prospects for their businesses. The week ended with the Dow down 0.6%, to 42,732; the S&P 500 down 0.5%, to 5,942; and the Nasdaq down 0.5%, to 19,622. Bonds overall finished positive for the week, the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% edging UP .01, to $98.20. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate up a tad from the prior week. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… Listings in December were 22% higher compared to last year, the fourteenth straight month of annual gains. However, inventory was at its lowest level since June due to seasonality. |
| THIS WEEK’S FORECAST |
| MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS, SERVICES, JOBS… We’ll check the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Survey for a rebound in buyer activity after the holidays. The December ISM Services Index is forecast to show a little more expansion in activity for this major sector of the U.S. economy. Economists expect the December jobs report to log a smaller number of new Nonfarm Payrolls, a lower increase in Average Hourly Earnings, and a hold to the 4.2% Unemployment Rate. |
| FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Wall Street now does not see the Fed’s first rate cut this year until May. Note: In the lower chart, the 11.2% probability of change is an 88.8% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 4.25%-4.50%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jan 29 4.25%-4.50% Mar 19 4.25%-4.50% May 7 4.00%-4.25% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS Jan 29 11.2% Mar 19 45.0% May 7 55.0% |
| BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK |
| You know what works best for you. So, schedule your day around the times you’re most productive, then take breaks as needed. Optimizing your performance to your personal preferences will boost your business success. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
