| |
| “The first of April is the day we remember what we are the other 364 days of the year.”—Mark Twain, American writer and humorist |
| The Pending Home Sales index of signed contracts on existing homes rose in February. The National Association of Realtors noted “slow and steady progress,” thanks to “increasing demand along with more inventory.” New Home Sales were largely unchanged in February, after two straight monthly gains. Good news for buyers—the median sale price fell for the sixth straight month and is down nearly 20% from its 2022 peak. Home prices overall posted mixed signals in January, with the national Case-Shiller index up a tick and the FHFA index of homes financed with conforming mortgages down a tick, both up a bit the past year. |
| ANOTHER RECORD HIGH… The major stock indexes made muted weekly moves, yet both the Dow and the S&P 500 hit record highs on Thursday, the final trading day of the quarter, as markets were closed for Good Friday. However, investors didn’t see Friday’s PCE Prices, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Overall PCE inflation edged up to 2.5%, and Core PCE (excluding food and energy) was 2.8%, up from the Fed’s 2% target for rate cuts. Final Q4 GDP came in at 3.4% economic growth, though that was seen as dated information. Weaker than expected March Consumer Confidence was balanced by low initial jobless claims showing labor market strength. The week ended with the Dow UP 0.8%, to 39,807; the S&P 500 UP 0.4%, to 5,254; but the Nasdaq down 0.3%, to 16,379. Bonds overall edged ahead for the week, with the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% UP .11, to $99.21. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate moved lower in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… Realtor.com reported 664,716 homes on the market in February 2024—more February listings than in any of the prior three years. Finding a home should be easier. |
| CONSTRUCTION SPENDING, MANUFACTURING, JOBS… For February, Construction Spending is forecast to gain overall, but we’ll check out the residential part. Manufacturing activity should still be contracting in March according to the ISM Manufacturing Index. Friday’s March jobs report is expected to show a slowdown in new Nonfarm Payrolls and a dip in the Unemployment Rate. |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Few Fed watchers anticipate a rate cut in May, but the majority see one in June, which is expected to hold through July. Note: In the lower chart, a 3.9% probability of change is an 96.1% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 5.25%-5.50%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS May 1 5.25%-5.50% Jun 12 5.00%-5.25% Jul 31 5.00%-5.25% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS May 1 3.9% Jun 12 68.5% Jul 31 48.4% |
| Find your own motivation to get serious about lead generation, then do it every day. Call prospects and referral partners, do mailings, social posts, and blog. The more you do, the better you get at it—and the more you do, the bigger your income. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
