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| “A step backward, after making a wrong turn, is a step in the right direction.”—Kurt Vonnegut, American writer and humorist |
| The housing market appears to be picking up. Existing Home Sales surprised with a 9.5% gain in February, the biggest in a year, following a healthy January increase. Inventories are up more than 10% the past year. Plus, more new homes are on the way. Housing Starts went up more than 10% in February, with much needed single-family starts now up more than 35% from a year ago. Home completions are almost 20% up for the month. Finally, more sellers are putting their homes on the market. In the week ending March 16, a whopping 17.8% more new listings hit the market compared to last year—the highest year-over-year growth rate in nearly three years. |
| THREE CHEERS FOR THE FED… The Fed held rates but voted to stick with three rate cuts this year despite recent hot inflation reads. Traders cheered that news, sending the three major stock indexes to record highs. The economy still gave mixed signals. The Philadelphia Fed Index of manufacturing activity in that region slipped in March, while weekly crude oil inventories fell, signaling increased demand and higher oil prices. Nonetheless, initial weekly jobless claims remain well below recession levels, the Leading Economic Index for February stayed in positive territory, and we had the strong housing market data reported above. The week ended with the Dow UP 2.0%, to 39,476; the S&P 500 UP 2.3%, to 5,234; and the Nasdaq UP 2.9%, to 16,429. The bond markets also finished the week ahead, with the 30-Year UMBS 5.5% UP .09, to $99.10. After dropping two straight weeks, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up slightly in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW… Homesellers have just a few weeks to put their homes on the market during the best week to sell. Historically, listings posted the week of April 14 have seen the strongest buyer demand, the highest listing prices, and fewest days on the market, according to Realtor.com. |
| NEW AND PENDING HOME SALES, CONSUMER SENTIMENT… We should see growth in New Home Sales for February, as builders cash in on growing demand. With existing home inventories increasing, the Pending Home Sales index of signed contracts on those homes is also expected to gain in February. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March is forecast to reflect consumers’ continued disappointment with inflation and the economy. |
| Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Analysts expect the Fed to hold the rate at the next meet, then cut it a quarter percent in June, and hold again in July, although there’s sentiment for either a second cut then or a move back up. Note: In the lower chart, a 10.2% probability of change is an 89.8% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 5.25%-5.50%. AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS May 1 5.25%-5.50% Jun 12 5.00%-5.25% Jul 31 5.00%-5.25% Probability of change from current policy: AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS May 1 10.2% Jun 12 75.0% Jul 31 53.8% |
| It’s terrific to be busy, but don’t get overwhelmed by the administrative tasks. Place priority on things that bring in revenue—the work you do to: 1) support your clients; and 2) acquire new ones. Everything else should take a back seat. |
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
