MARKET UPDATE
Home building sprang to life early in Q2, as Housing Starts shot up 5.7% in April, to a 1.235 million unit annual rate. Yes, single-family starts are down versus a year ago, but that was when building surged after late 2017’s hurricanes.
The fact is, planned housing projects (units authorized but not started) are up 19% the past year, and affordability has improved, with mortgage rates down and wages now growing faster than new home prices.
Small wonder the National Association of Home Builders reports builder confidence rose in May. Forward-looking data supports this, as Building Permits increased 0.6% in April, their first gain this year.
REVIEW OF LAST WEEK
TRADE WAR WORRIES WIN OUT… For five days, uncertainty over the trade battle with China riled Wall Street, and even some excellent economic data couldn’t prevent the stock market from ending down for the week.
The Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose in April for the third month in a row, a key sign of future growth. Plus, consumer confidence hit a 15-year high in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Some fretted over April’s Retail Sales slip, but that followed March’s largest monthly gain in more than a year. Manufacturing kept growing by the Philly Fed and NY Empire State Indexes, while initial jobless claims stayed historically low.
The week ended with the Dow down 0.7%, to 25764; the S&P 500 down 0.8%, to 2860; and the Nasdaq down 1.3%, to 7816.
Trade war uneasiness sent bond prices higher. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended UP .12, at $102.78. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate again dropped. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.
DID YOU KNOW?
A Harris Poll reports that about 12.1 million homeowners are planning to list their homes–around 16% of them in the next 18 Months.
THIS WEEK’S FORECAST
EXISTING HOME SALES UP, NEW HOME SALES DOWN, FED INSIGHTS… The forecasts say April Existing Home Sales will be up, but New Home Sales down a tad. FOMC Minutes will cover the discussion at the last Fed meet, and indicate where rates may go.
NOTE: Weaker economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.
FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… There is now an even chance we’ll see a rate cut in September, according to the Fed Funds Futures market. Note: In the lower chart, a 10% probability of change is a 90% probability the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 2.25%-2.50%
| AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: | CONSENSUS |
| Jun 19 | 2.25%-2.50% |
| Jul 31 | 2.25%-2.50% |
| Sep 18 | 2.25%-2.50% |
Probability of change from current policy:
| AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: | CONSENSUS |
| Jun 19 | 10% |
| Jul 31 | 26% |
| Sep 18 | 50% |
