Market Update for the Week of April 8, 2019

MARKET UPDATE

Freddie Mac’s chief economist noted, “Purchase mortgage application demand saw the second highest weekly increase in the last year and…overall mortgage demand rose to the highest level since the fall of 2016.”

CoreLogic’s chief economist added, “we expect mortgage rates to remain low and be a boost for the spring buying season,” and that “could lead to a pickup in home price growth later this year.”

Ellie Mae‘s latest Millennial Tracker reports purchase requests from Millennials increased to 87% of all purchase requests made in February, up 2% from January.

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

BIG JOBS, LITTLE INFLATION… The March jobs report came in with a big 196,000 new Nonfarm Payrolls but little inflation threat, thanks to modest wage gains, sending the S&P 500 on its longest winning streak in a year and a half.

The healthy jobs boost says the economy is growing nicely, but low inflation concerns mean the Fed needn’t raise rates to keep prices in check. Their favorite inflation measure fell 1.4% in January, well under their 2% target.

Weekly unemployment claims sank to their lowest level since Joe Namath won the Super Bowl, and Chinese President Xi sent President Trump a letter saying great progress had been made toward wrapping up trade negotiations ASAP.

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.9%, to 26425; the S&P 500 UP 2.1%, to 2893; and the Nasdaq UP 2.7%, to 7939.

Bonds finished on a mostly flat note. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down .10, to $102.73. After the prior week’s major drop, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate held steady in Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?

The Census Bureau reported the value of all construction put in place in February hit the highest level since May 2018, with homebuilding rising 0.7% to $540.9 billion.

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

LESS INFLATION, MORE FED …  Another measure of inflation, Core CPI, not the Fed’s favorite, is expected to stay within their target range. We should get more insight into the Fed’s view of the interest rate picture when the FOMC Minutes from the last meeting are revealed on Wednesday.

NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and higher loan rates.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… Wall Street sees little chance of a rate hike through the next three Fed meetings, though the probability of a rate cut is increasing. Note: In the lower chart, a 4% probability of change is a 96% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 2.25%-2.50%

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
May  1 2.25%-2.50%
Jun 19 2.25%-2.50%
Jul  31 2.25%-2.50%

 

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
May  1     4%
Jun 19    16%
Jul  31    20%
The Jim Passi Team at Citywide Home Loans proudly serves Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Georgia and Flordia. If you are looking to buy a home or refinance, we have you covered. Apply Now to get started.
Jim Passi - Citiwide Home Loans

Jim Passi
Regional Manager
NMLS# 158000

1300 East Woodfield Road, Suite 302
Schaumburg, IL 60173
Mobile: 847-899-1813
Office: 847-273-3265

This testimony is from my

This testimony is from my experience being a first-time home buyer going through the process of purchasing a home with Jim Passi from City Wide home loans. Let me just start off by saying how reliable, courteous, genuine, informational and hardworking Jim Passi is. Jim is not like a lot of other loan officers. My house I purchased for under 160 grand, not a huge real estate deal. From experience with other loan officers they don’t want to deal with a smaller purchase or work on a loan that might be difficult. With our credit score being low and work history not at expectations I was almost positive I would have to wait a year or maybe two years before being approved and close on a house. I definitely had doubts that I would be a home owner, Jim worked hard and stayed in contact with us updating us almost every day of the process, even during evening hours and weekends during the stressful underwriting process. Communication is key and I give Jim a 5-star rating with that. I consider myself an average blue-collar hard-working guy that has experienced hardships during life. Jim was never turned away by the hardships, he was understanding of them and I feel like it made him work even harder to make this process a success.

I just successfully closed on a house with my fiancé. Jim did what I thought was impossible. Again, with our credit score being under 600 and spotty work history it was a difficult process that became a success with a lot of hard work. Jim also got me the best interest rate that was available. He was constantly checking the market and keeping me informed on what was available. He wanted me to take my time and make sure what rate was in our best interest. Jim has a cretin genuine care for his clients and speaking with him so much during this process I know he truly cares and wants to help people. Even after we closed Jim called and congratulated us with excitement. Jim made a dream come true for us that I was sure we would have to wait for. I’m just going to say if he made my dream come true with all the problems I had he can make a lot of others come true for any one in a similar situation. Jim Passi is highly recommended.

Tim A.