Market Update for the Week of September 4, 2018

MARKET UPDATE

The Pending Home Sales index edged down 0.7% in July, but this was after a 1.0% jump in June. Some economists say these numbers point to a small gain in August existing home sales.

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 0.3% in June. But First American‘s chief economist feels “price appreciation may be slowing” with “a natural moderation in home prices, rather than a sharp decline.”

Freddie Mac‘s chief economist adds, “the economy and the labor market are very healthy right now, and mortgage rates have stabilized…. These factors should continue to create…an uptick in sales.”

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

SETTING MORE RECORDS… The S&P 500 ended above 2900 and the Nasdaq soared past 8,000 for the first time ever. Progress on trade helped, but the big drivers were strong corporate earnings and economic fundamentals.

Need examples? The second read on Q2 GDP moved economic growth up to 4.2%. Or how about Consumer Confidence–now at its highest level in 18 years.

Consumers are no doubt delighted to see their disposable income (income after taxes) up 5.3% from a year ago. That’s sent personal spending up 5.2% the past year to help to boost the economy.

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.7%, to 25965; the S&P 500 UP 0.9%, to 2902, and the Nasdaq UP 2.1%, to 8110.

Longer-dated bonds fell as stocks rose. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended down.17, at $101.81. Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey saw the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate barely move up. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

DID YOU KNOW?

A mortgage insurance company reports first-time homebuyers now account for 55% of mortgages originated.

THIS WEEK’S FORECAST

MORE FACTORY ACTIVITY, MORE JOBS… U.S. financial markets were closed yesterday for Labor Day, leaving us with a shortened trading week featuring two key economic reports. Manufacturing and employment have shown new strength the past year and that’s expected to continue in August’s ISM Index of manufacturing and monthly Employment Report.

NOTE: Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

FEDERAL RESERVE WATCH

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… A quarter percent rate hike this month is now a near certainty, with a second one seen for the end of the year. Note: In the lower chart, a 98% probability of change is only a 2% probability the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.75%-2.00%

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Sep 26 2.00%-2.25%
Nov 8 2.00%-2.25%
Dec 19 2.25%-2.50%

 

Probability of change from current policy:

AFTER FOMC MEETING ON: CONSENSUS
Sep 26 98%
Nov 8  6%
Dec 19 70%

BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK

There are two good reasons to tackle major tasks first thing: you get the big stuff out of the way; and the major sense of accomplishment you’ll feel gives a big boost to the rest of your day.

This is an advertisement for Jim Passi. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Citywide Home Loans and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Citywide Home Loans. Citywide CO NMLS #67180. Regulated by the Division of Real Estate.

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Jim Passi
Regional Manager
NMLS# 158000

1300 East Woodfield Road, Suite 302
Schaumburg, IL 60173
Mobile: 847-899-1813
Office: 847-273-3265

In short, Jim was a

In short, Jim was a pleasure to work with. Knowledgeable, personable, and never in a rush, he took the time to make the daunting process of getting a home loan understandable. In addition to the considerable professional knowledge he brought to the table, he was able to provide real peace of mind by establishing a real relationship. Knowing that Jim was in my corner allowed me to focus on other more important matters during a hectic time.

Thanks Jim for all your support. See you at my next closing!

Joshua C.